PGA Tour betting tips for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship

News

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Potomac, Maryland, this week.

Which players are the favorites this time around? Who offers good odds? And what props are worthwhile?

Betting analysts Anita Marks and sports betting deputy editor David Bearman offer their tips to help you win this weekend.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.


Bets to win

Corey Conners

Bearman’s picks: To win (20-1); top-10 finish (+250)

The Wells Fargo moves to TPC Potomac to give Quail Hollow time to set up for the President’s Cup. While TPC Potomac has hosted a few times over the years, it does make course history a little less important than course metrics. The set up here requires precision off the tee and with long irons. Conners fits that bill, entering 6th in shots gained off tee, 33rd in approach, 3rd in hitting greens and 13th tee-to-green. Conners has not played this particular course (it hosted in 2017-18) but comes in off a T-6 at the Masters and T-12 at Hilton Head, after a 3rd place finish in match play and T-11/T-26 at the Arnold Palmer and the Players. He’s been very consistent over the past two months and gets a course that fits his game to a tee. Rory McIlroy (8-1) is the only player with odds sub 20-1, but those are only justified if this was played at Quail Hollow. Since it’s not, I’d rather have the 20-1 price with Conners.

Russell Henley

Bearman’s picks: To win (35-1); top-20 finish (+175)

As noted above, the TPC Potomac is a shot-makers course that demands precision over length. Henley leads the entire Tour in Shots Gained approach, gaining more than a shot on the field. He’s 9th in hitting greens and 26th in driving accuracy, 6th tee-to-green and 9th overall. While his weakness is driving distance, the setup here eliminates that concern. His recent results won’t overwhelm you (no top-10 finishes since a runner-up in Hawaii), but he has played this course before and his strong approach play should keep him in contention all week

Marks’ pick: to win (35-1)

I might be overthinking this, but weather conditions are going to be horrible starting Friday afternoon into Saturday morning — rain, wind at 30 mph, temps in the 50s. Therefore, I’m looking for golfer that tee off on Thursday afternoon/Friday morning — to avoid the slop! Henley is one of those, who is also first in SG approach and 6th in SG T2G this season; two metrics that are most important at TPC Potomac.

Marc Leishman

Bearman’s picks: To win (40-1); top-20 finish (+200)

While I am not measuring course history as much as I usually do for the yearly PGA Tour stops, you can’t completely ignore it. Leishman went T-5 in 2017 and T-13 in 2018 and was one of the three players (Sung Kang, Rickie Fowler being other two) with two top-15 finishes at TPC Potomac. The weather may get a little dicey with higher winds over the weekend, which plays right into Leishman’s advantage.

Props

Rory McIlroy

Bearman’s pick: Top-10 finish (-105)

If the Wells Fargo had returned to Quail Hollow this year, McIlroy would’ve been my first, second and third pick to win this week. Even with an 18-month winning drought, he turned around and won this event there last year, continuing an absurd run that has seen him win the times and finish in the top 10 in eight of 10 appearances. McIlroy’s game is in good shape to win again, fresh off his final round 64 at the Masters three weeks ago. However, with this being a different course this year and McIlroy having the short 8-1 odds to win, there is not a ton of value. Sure, you could have said that last week with the 4-1 Rahm price, but rarely does that happen. Could he win another Wells Fargo title? For sure, but this is a different course (one he has never played), so I am going to go with the even money price of -110 for him to be one of the top 10 in a fairly weak field.

Keegan Bradley

Bearman’s pick: Top-10 finish (+380)

Bradley enters this week’s course 29th in SG off-the-tee, 10th tee-to-green and 24th on approach. His low fairway hit percentage are trouble with the flat stick are scaring me off of picking him to win at the 35-1 price. But I think we can get to the top-10 with his strong iron play. Bradley has been solid the past few weeks, with a T-4 finish at Zurich and T-8 finish at the Valero event. Keep in mind he finished 5th at TPC Sawgrass, another course where you need to be good with your irons. The event at TPC Potomac has been won by golfers that don’t putt particularly well, so he should be in the mix. At close to 4-1, I’m hoping he will grab a top-10 spot.

Marks’ pick: Top-10 finish (+380)

Bradley is rested and ready to go. He loves playing in the wind and rain. Bradley has two top-10 finishes this season, is long and accurate off the tee and is one of the best ball strikers on tour, which will be needed in these conditions.

Tony Finau

Marks’ pick: Top-20 finish (+120)

Tony comes in after shooting a 63 last Sunday in Mexico and finishing second. He is long off the tee and excels on bent grass. Finau should do well in these conditions.

Brian Harman

Marks’ pick: Top-20 finish (+200)

Harman has actually won a Wells Fargo tourney, but not on this track. He keeps his ball in the fairway and thrives in horrible weather conditions. His Friday morning tee time should benefit him.

Gary Woodland

Marks’ pick: Top-20 finish (+190)

Woodland, outside of the Masters — where he never plays well — is having a terrific season. He is sporting two top 5s in Florida, finished 8th at the Valspar and ranks in the top 13 in SG T2G.

Matchups

Russell Henley

Bearman’s pick: Tourney matchup (-130) over Paul Casey

I gave all the reasons above why I think Henley has a good chance to win this week. As for Casey, the past two times we heard his name, he was pulling out of events, first the unfortunate WD after playing two holes in the match play and then pulling out right before the Masters started. He has the game to contend here, but he might just be worried about finishing 18 holes at a time. Advantage, Henley.

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